Why the cliff is back
From 2021 through 2025, enhanced premium tax credits capped benchmark premiums at 8.5% of income for everyone, so there was no cliff. Those enhancements expired on December 31, 2025. For 2026 and 2027, anyone with household income above 400% of the federal poverty line gets nothing. A 60-year-old couple can lose $15,000 or more a year by earning one extra dollar.
Three changes that make it worse
- No more repayment cap. Starting with tax year 2026, if your actual income is higher than estimated you repay the full excess subsidy. Before, repayment was capped at $375 to $3,250 for most households. Estimate your 2026 repayment →
- Higher expected contributions. In 2027 you pay up to 10.22% of income for the benchmark plan, up from 9.96% in 2026, while insurers have proposed a median 14% premium increase.
- Immigrant eligibility narrows in 2027. Only citizens, green-card holders, Cuban/Haitian entrants and COFA migrants remain eligible for premium tax credits.
How the calculation works
- Divide your household MAGI by the 2026 poverty guideline for your household size to get your FPL percentage.
- Look up your applicable percentage (2.15% to 10.22%) and multiply it by your income. That is your expected yearly contribution.
- Your subsidy is the benchmark silver premium minus your expected contribution. Above 400% FPL, it is zero.
See the full 2027 poverty line and 400% FPL chart or our guide to lowering your MAGI.